ABSTRACT
Objective@#We planned to evaluate the effectiveness of moving epidemic method (MEM) in calculating influenza epidemic threshold of 7 climatic zones in China mainland.@*Methods@#The positive rate of influenza virus was obtained from the National Influenza Surveillance Network System from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018. We divided the 31 provinces into 7 climatic zones according to previous literatures and applied MEM to calculate the influenza epidemic threshold of 2018/2019 influenza season for these climatic zones. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated to evaluate the effectiveness of MEM.@*Results@#Pre-epidemic threshold (the positive rate of influenza virus) varied from 9.66% (temperate zone) to 16.36% (subtropical zone) for 2018/2019 influenza season. The gap between pre-epidemic and post-epidemic thresholds was less than 5% except for plateau zone. The sensitivity was 86.16% (95CI:66.81%-98.23%), the specificity was 94.92% (95CI: 91.13%-98.41%), the positive predictive value was 89.87% (95%CI: 84.39%-94.38%), the negative predictive value was 92.96% (95%CI: 84.46%-99.17%).@*Conclusion@#Overall, moving epidemic Method performs well in calculating influenza epidemic threshold in China, much better than the previous study.
ABSTRACT
Se presenta un estudio de control de foco de un brote de cólera, mediante la técnica observacional del tipo serie de casos, en el mes de julio de 2014 en el Municipio Matanzas, donde se describe, según el método epidemiológico, la relación de los casos detectados con el caso índice; se analiza el problema detectado teniendo en cuenta el enfoque de riesgo del cólera. Se realiza una evolución clínico-epidemiológica de los casos detectados y se analizan las medidas de control de foco aplicadas. Se revisan tanto las historias clínicas individuales en el consultorio del médico de la familia, como las encuestas epidemiológicas y el expediente de control de foco en el departamento de Epidemiología (AU).
A study of control of focus of a bud of cholera is presented, by means of the observational technique of the type series of cases, in the month of July of 2014 in the Municipality Matanzas, where it is described, according to the epidemic method, the relationship of the cases detected with the index case; the detected problem is analyzed keeping in mind the focus of risk of the cholera. He/she is carried out a clinical-epidemic evolution of the detected cases and of the applied measures of focus control. They are revised the clinical histories so much in the clinic of the doctor of the family, as the epidemic surveys and the file of focus control in the department of epidemiology (AU).